Ravensburger · Aug/Sep 2023 · the only real Lorcana shortage · five years or longer
Lorcana The First Chapter Booster Box (Wave One) is a Ravensburger Disney Lorcana product, one of 71 sealed items scored in the box ROI tool. It's filed as a hold-sealed play rather than something to rip, and those two strategies want opposite things — holding wants time and shrinking sealed supply, ripping wants peak demand right now.
With appreciation at 68 and liquidity at 50, this sits in the ordinary range on both axes. Those are the entries where the reasoning matters more than the scores.
Accessibility of 25 is the catch. That score tracks whether you can buy near MSRP or you're already paying a premium to someone else, and at 25 you are paying up. A box with real upside bought at double MSRP is a worse purchase than an ordinary one bought at retail.
Set against all 71 sealed products scored here, its appreciation of 68 ranks 45th of 71, liquidity 50 ranks 60th, accessibility 25 ranks 48th, and risk 55 is the 64th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Lorcana Illumineer's Trove, which scores 38 and 72 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
Five years or more is a patience bet. Over that span the specific reasoning below matters less than whether the underlying thing stays desirable, and the honest position is that nobody knows what the hobby looks like in 2031. Size it accordingly.
Risk at 55 is the middle of the range: real ways to fail, none of them exotic. A role change, a slow start, or the hobby simply deciding to care about something else for a while.
You can realistically find Lorcana The First Chapter Booster Box (Wave One) at a local card shop and online.
Skip the retail aisle for this. It is a hobby product, which means shops and distributors get it and big-box stores never do.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: which sealed boxes return more than they cost.
Or browse all sealed products · how these scores are built
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