UFC · UFC Welterweight · WW · age 24 · about two years
This is the UFC entry for Jacobe Smith: WW for UFC Welterweight, age 24. It sits alongside 81 other player entries in the picks tool.
At 88, accessibility is unusually good for something scored this highly elsewhere. Cards like that don't stay accessible forever, which is the argument for looking now rather than later.
Card upside (80) sits above the breakout score (52), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against all 80 breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 52 ranks 71st of 80, card upside 80 ranks 52nd, accessibility 88 ranks 2nd, and risk 40 is the 49th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Quillan Salkilld, which scores 92 and 90 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
Two years gives the situation time to develop past its first impression, which is usually when the price is set by whoever shouted loudest. It also means two years of not touching it, including through the stretch where it looks wrong.
Risk at 40 is the middle of the range: real ways to fail, none of them exotic. A role change, a slow start, or the hobby simply deciding to care about something else for a while.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
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