baseball · Detroit Tigers · SS · age 21 · about a year
Kevin McGonigle — baseball, SS, Detroit Tigers, age 21. One of 82 entries, each scored on four separate axes rather than given a single grade.
An accessibility score of 38 means partly priced in. You are not early and you are not late, which in practice means being picky about which specific card you buy matters more than the timing.
Breakout (88) and card upside (92) sit close together, which is the straightforward case: if the performance arrives, the cards should follow it rather than shrug.
Set against the 14 baseball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 88 ranks 5th of 14, card upside 92 ranks 3rd, accessibility 38 ranks 12th, and risk 22 is the 2nd-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is JJ Wetherholt, which scores 90 and 94 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
A one-year horizon means you're betting on a single body of work — one season, essentially. That's a much narrower bet than a career, and it should be sized like one.
At 22, this is one of the calmer entries in here. Read that as relative: the floor under any card is whatever the next person will pay, and that number can move a long way in a month.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
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