baseball · Detroit Tigers · SS · age 21 · about a year
Kevin McGonigle — baseball, SS, Detroit Tigers, age 21. One of 74 entries, each scored on four separate axes rather than given a single grade.
An accessibility score of 38 means partly priced in. You are not early and you are not late, which in practice means being picky about which specific card you buy matters more than the timing.
Breakout (88) and card upside (92) sit close together, which is the straightforward case: if the performance arrives, the cards should follow it rather than shrug.
Set against the 13 baseball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 88 ranks 5th of 13, card upside 92 ranks 3rd, accessibility 38 ranks 11th, and risk 22 is the 2nd-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is JJ Wetherholt, which scores 90 and 94 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
A one-year horizon means you're betting on a single body of work — one season, essentially. That's a much narrower bet than a career, and it should be sized like one.
At 22, this is one of the calmer entries in here. Read that as relative: the floor under any card is whatever the next person will pay, and that number can move a long way in a month.
You can realistically find Kevin McGonigle cards at a card show and online.
Show tables and online listings are where individual cards change hands, so those two are always open to you. What varies is whether a shop or a retail pack is a sensible way in as well.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built
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