football · Jacksonville Jaguars · QB · age 26 · about six months
This is the football entry for Trevor Lawrence: QB for Jacksonville Jaguars, age 26. It sits alongside 81 other player entries in the picks tool.
The useful number is accessibility at 70: you can still get in at a price that leaves room between what you pay and the best case. That gap is the whole return.
Card upside (85) sits above the breakout score (65), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against the 14 football breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 65 ranks 9th of 14, card upside 85 ranks 5th, accessibility 70 ranks 4th, and risk 42 is the 6th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Tyler Shough, which scores 76 and 84 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
The window is about six months. Long enough that one bad month doesn't settle it, short enough that you're betting on a specific stretch rather than a career. Six-month positions are where people most often forget they set a deadline.
A risk score of 42 means ordinary risk — the failure modes are the boring ones, which is also why they're easy to talk yourself out of worrying about.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
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