Pokémon · Obsidian Flames / 151 · Special Art Rare · about two years
Filed under Pokémon. Charizard ex SAR tracks Special Art Rare from Obsidian Flames / 151 — a specific card to watch rather than an athlete to bet on.
An accessibility score of 40 means partly priced in. You are not early and you are not late, which in practice means being picky about which specific card you buy matters more than the timing.
Card upside (87) sits above the breakout score (72), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against the 5 Pokémon breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 72 ranks 3rd of 5, card upside 87 ranks 1st, accessibility 40 ranks 4th, and risk 22 is the 1st-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Pikachu ex SIR, which scores 74 and 74 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
Two years gives the situation time to develop past its first impression, which is usually when the price is set by whoever shouted loudest. It also means two years of not touching it, including through the stretch where it looks wrong.
Risk is scored 22, toward the low end of anything in the tool. Low risk in trading cards is still not low risk in any sense your bank would recognise — it means the identifiable ways for this to go wrong are fewer, not that they're absent.
You can realistically find Charizard ex SAR cards at a local card shop, a card show and online.
There is no big-box option for this one. Hobby configurations are allocated to card shops and distributors and do not reach Walmart or Target shelves at all, so a wasted trip is the likeliest outcome of looking there.
Show tables and online listings are where individual cards change hands, so those two are always open to you. What varies is whether a shop or a retail pack is a sensible way in as well.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built
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