Iva Jovic — tennis, Singles, WTA Tour, age 18. One of 82 entries, each scored on four separate axes rather than given a single grade.
Accessibility of 86 is what makes this interesting. The hobby hasn't priced the story in yet, and that is the only condition under which a high upside score is actually worth something to a buyer rather than to whoever already owns the cards.
Breakout (78) and card upside (84) sit close together, which is the straightforward case: if the performance arrives, the cards should follow it rather than shrug.
Set against the 5 tennis breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 78 ranks 2nd of 5, card upside 84 ranks 3rd, accessibility 86 ranks 1st, and risk 36 is the 3rd-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Learner Tien, which scores 84 and 88 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
A one-year horizon means you're betting on a single body of work — one season, essentially. That's a much narrower bet than a career, and it should be sized like one.
A risk score of 36 means ordinary risk — the failure modes are the boring ones, which is also why they're easy to talk yourself out of worrying about.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built