basketball · Washington Wizards · SG · age 19 · about two years
This is the basketball entry for Tre Johnson: SG for Washington Wizards, age 19. It sits alongside 81 other player entries in the picks tool.
At 70, accessibility is unusually good for something scored this highly elsewhere. Cards like that don't stay accessible forever, which is the argument for looking now rather than later.
Card upside (82) sits above the breakout score (68), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against the 10 basketball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 68 ranks 4th of 10, card upside 82 ranks 6th, accessibility 70 ranks 2nd, and risk 52 is the 8th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Zaccharie Risacher, which scores 62 and 82 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
Two years gives the situation time to develop past its first impression, which is usually when the price is set by whoever shouted loudest. It also means two years of not touching it, including through the stretch where it looks wrong.
A risk score of 52 means ordinary risk — the failure modes are the boring ones, which is also why they're easy to talk yourself out of worrying about.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
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