basketball · Washington Wizards · SG · age 19 · about two years
This is the basketball entry for Tre Johnson: SG for Washington Wizards, age 19. It sits alongside 77 other player entries in the picks tool.
At 70, accessibility is unusually good for something scored this highly elsewhere. Cards like that don't stay accessible forever, which is the argument for looking now rather than later.
Card upside (76) sits above the breakout score (58), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against the 11 basketball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 58 ranks 8th of 11, card upside 76 ranks 9th, accessibility 70 ranks 3rd, and risk 56 is the 10th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Zaccharie Risacher, which scores 60 and 78 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
Two years gives the situation time to develop past its first impression, which is usually when the price is set by whoever shouted loudest. It also means two years of not touching it, including through the stretch where it looks wrong.
56 on risk is not a rounding error. Position size is the only real defence against a number that high, and it's the one lever entirely within your control.
You can realistically find Tre Johnson cards at the card aisle at Walmart or Target, a local card shop, a card show and online.
This is common enough to turn up on a big-box shelf, so the retail aisle is worth checking before anywhere else — it is the only venue on this list where you are not buying from a reseller.
Because this is a player rather than a product, you are shopping for singles: show tables and online marketplaces always have them, and the rest of the list depends on how widely the cards were printed.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built
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