football · New Orleans Saints · QB · age 25 · about a year
This is the football entry for Tyler Shough: QB for New Orleans Saints, age 25. It sits alongside 73 other player entries in the picks tool.
Accessibility of 73 is what makes this interesting. The hobby hasn't priced the story in yet, and that is the only condition under which a high upside score is actually worth something to a buyer rather than to whoever already owns the cards.
Card upside (84) sits above the breakout score (76), which is the rarer shape. It means the cards look primed to react even though the step up in performance is less certain — usually because market size, playing style or an existing collector base is doing work the stat line isn't.
Set against the 11 football breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 76 ranks 7th of 11, card upside 84 ranks 5th, accessibility 73 ranks 2nd, and risk 40 is the 5th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Bhayshul Tuten, which scores 80 and 80 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
A one-year horizon means you're betting on a single body of work — one season, essentially. That's a much narrower bet than a career, and it should be sized like one.
A risk score of 40 means ordinary risk — the failure modes are the boring ones, which is also why they're easy to talk yourself out of worrying about.
You can realistically find Tyler Shough cards at the card aisle at Walmart or Target, a local card shop, a card show and online.
This is common enough to turn up on a big-box shelf, so the retail aisle is worth checking before anywhere else — it is the only venue on this list where you are not buying from a reseller.
Show tables and online listings are where individual cards change hands, so those two are always open to you. What varies is whether a shop or a retail pack is a sensible way in as well.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built
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