baseball · LA Dodgers · DH/P · age 32 · about six months
Shohei Ohtani Historic-Season Peak (Sell) — baseball, DH/P, LA Dodgers, age 32. One of 82 entries, each scored on four separate axes rather than given a single grade.
Accessibility lands mid-table at 38. The obvious cards have moved, but there are still parallels and lesser versions priced sensibly if you're willing to hunt. That hunting is where the actual work of this one sits.
Breakout (55) runs well ahead of card upside (38), and that gap is deliberate rather than sloppy. It says the performance is more likely than the price reaction. Players get better without their cards noticing all the time — small market, unglamorous position, highlights that don't travel.
Set against the 14 baseball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 55 ranks 10th of 14, card upside 38 ranks 13th, accessibility 38 ranks 12th, and risk 45 is the 11th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Paul Skenes Y1-Y2 Peak (Sell), which scores 55 and 35 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
The window is about six months. Long enough that one bad month doesn't settle it, short enough that you're betting on a specific stretch rather than a career. Six-month positions are where people most often forget they set a deadline.
Risk at 45 is the middle of the range: real ways to fail, none of them exotic. A role change, a slow start, or the hobby simply deciding to care about something else for a while.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built