basketball · San Antonio Spurs · C · age 22 · about six months
Wembanyama Y3 Peak (Partial Sell) is one of 82 player entries in The Card Investor. Age 22, listed at C, currently with San Antonio Spurs — filed under basketball.
Start with accessibility, which is 15. That score answers a question the hype never does: can you still buy in at a price that leaves room? At 15 the answer is mostly no. The versions worth owning are already expensive and the cheap entry points are gone.
Breakout (55) runs well ahead of card upside (38), and that gap is deliberate rather than sloppy. It says the performance is more likely than the price reaction. Players get better without their cards noticing all the time — small market, unglamorous position, highlights that don't travel.
Set against the 10 basketball breakout picks scored here, its breakout of 55 ranks 8th of 10, card upside 38 ranks 9th, accessibility 15 ranks 10th, and risk 38 is the 4th-lowest. The closest thing to it on the numbers is Cooper Flagg Rookie-Year Peak (Partial Sell), which scores 55 and 35 on the same two axes — if you're weighing one against the other, the difference is in the reasoning rather than the scores.
The window is about six months. Long enough that one bad month doesn't settle it, short enough that you're betting on a specific stretch rather than a career. Six-month positions are where people most often forget they set a deadline.
A risk score of 38 means ordinary risk — the failure modes are the boring ones, which is also why they're easy to talk yourself out of worrying about.
Every entry gets four separate scores instead of one grade, because a single grade hides the thing you needed. Full explanation in the guide: how to spot a breakout before the cards move.
Or browse all breakout picks · how these scores are built